ANTELOPE VALLEY press

Study Maps out Valley's Rapid Changes

Antelope Valley Press
May 30, 1990

By LINDA LEE Staff Writer

PALMDALE - Fifty-seven new residents per day moved to the Antelope Valley during the past four years, and 34 percent of the population commutes out of the area to work, according to an Antelope Valley market study released Tuesday. The report, prepared by Alfred Gobar Associates Inc., for the Lancaster Economic Development Corp., was presented to about 150 community leaders at the Palmdale Cultural Center. Alfred Gobar, who headed the research effort, said that if the Antelope Valley's 3,000 square miles were developed at a density typical of Orange County, they could accommodate 16 million people. According to Gobar, between May 1986 and January 1990, 24,967 jobs - 13.7 per day - were added in the Antelope Valley; and 2,125 square feet of retail space were added for an additional annual retail expenditure potential of $310,601 per day. In addition, 33,989 new homes--23.3 per day--were built in the Antelope Valley over the past four years. In 1989, nearly 13,000 building permits were pulled in the Antelope Valley (including Kern County), with 6,820 of those in Palmdale and 3,700 in Lancaster. Since the first Gobar report was released in 1987, the population growth in terms of compound annual growth has more than doubled in Lancaster and Palmdale, he said. Lancaster's population of 88,700 represents 58 percent of the Valley's estimated 250,000 population. Palmdale's 56,600 population represents 22.55 percent of the population. While Lancaster's population is higher than Palmdale, Palmdale is growing at a faster rate. Since 1980, Palmdale's population has increased 168.4 percent, adding 28,770 new people, while Lancaster grew at 80.2 percent, adding 36,572 residents. According to the Gobar report, the most important reasons cited for moving to the Antelope Valley are employment opportunities and housing availability. The majority of residents seemed satisfied with services and schools, he added. The average Antelope Valley household contains 3.05 people and the median mcome is $39,100 a year, he said. Lancaster Mayor Bill Pursley said that "while most Southern California businesses are trying to attract good employees, we however, have good employees in our area who help attract business." The cities of Lancaster and Palmdale, who helped pay for the Gobar study, will send it to developers interested in locating to the Valley. "Through various methods our cities are working to get the word out about our Valley as a business site," he said. "Together we are working to create jobs by attracting industry. Only by diversifying our employment base locally can we alleviate the problems of overcrowded roadways and the poor qualIty of famIly life now suffered by many of our commuters," he saId. Pursley saId there is a tremendous local work force just waitIng for industry to come in. Palmdale Mayor Pete Knight agrees. The Gobar report was a worthwhile expenditure, he said. A lot of economics is emotion. We want to send out a positive message," he said. Several community leaders said the report contained no surprises, just a confirmation of facts and numbers already circulating. According to the Gobar report, a large proportion of the resident labor force that commutes outside the Antelope Valley is employed in manufacturing, along with a significant proportion of those employed in repair, business and professional services. Few in the local work force who are employed in retail trade, finance, insurance real estate and education commute to work, the study states. Gobar said most of the commmuters tend to have incomes withion the $46,000 to $47,000 range, tend to be younger, heads of households and attended college. Those with the longest commutes tend to earn the highest wages, his report states. Palmdale and unincorporated Los Angeles County areas hold the majority of commuters and represent areas where those surveyed reported the highest likelihood of being willing to change jobs if similar employment was available near their homes. About 41 percent of those surveyed indicated a willingness to change jobs if similar employment was available near their homes. About 41 percent of those surveyed indicated a willingness to chnage jobs to work closer to home. The percentage of people willing ot change jobs was higher in certain groups--58 percent of those travelling outside of the Antelope Valley to work; 63 percent of those who commute more than one hour to work; and 76 percent who consider traffic heavily congested. Those employed in manufacturing, business services, aerospace, repair services, health services, government and the military would be most likely to change jobs, the report said. But few of those willing to change jobs would do so if the change involved a significant reduction in income, Gobar said. According to the data collected the valley has seen an increase in construction, retail, finance, insurance, banking and service related jobs, while there has been a decrease in goivernment, agriculture and manufacturing jobs.